Every so often, the real world makes a mockery of the neat figures modeled by Congressional budgeteers. In 2008, U.S. individual taxpayers reported $438 billion less in capital gains than they did in 2007. This change, reported today by the IRS, resulted in about $65b less revenue than in 2007.
The other significant components of individual taxpayers’ gross income either dropped slightly, or picked up slightly, but the capital gains figure dropped a whopping 48%. To put this in perspective, the total drop in adjusted gross income from 2007 to 2008 was $425b, less than the drop in capital gains. The biggest component of AGI - – wages and salaries – - rose by a meager 1.9%.
In 2007, capital gains accounted for 10% of AGI. In 2008, it had dropped to 5%.
What this illustrates is that federal revenue has become sensitive to the performance of capital markets. When the stock market crashes, as it did in 2000 and in 2008, it causes a major impact on federal revenue in the following year.